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Milan-San Remo 2024 will be remembered as one of the most unpredictable and thrilling editions in the race’s storied history. Known as the easiest race to finish but the hardest to win, this year’s event unfolded with unprecedented drama, particularly in its final kilometers. The race saw Tadej Pogačar, the two-time Tour de France champion, Mathieu van der Poel, the reigning world champion, and Filippo Ganna, the powerhouse Italian, battling for victory in a nail-biting finale.
The Calm Before the Storm: The First 220 km
The opening 220 kilometers of Milan-San Remo are typically uneventful, with the peloton conserving energy for the decisive climbs and sprints. Data from Axel Laurance, a rider of similar size to Pogačar (~65 kg), illustrates how relaxed this phase of the race was. Laurance averaged 195 watts (3 watts/kg) with a normalized power of 232 watts (3.6 watts/kg) over this segment, highlighting the controlled pace that allowed even amateur cyclists to hypothetically keep up at the back of the peloton.
The Capo Climbs: A Prelude to the Real Action
The race heated up as the peloton approached the Capo climbs—Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, and Capo Berta. While these climbs often serve as launchpads for attacks, this year they failed to significantly impact the race. Instead, the focus shifted to the Cipressa, the penultimate climb, where UAE Team Emirates-XRG had meticulously planned to unleash Pogačar.
The Cipressa: Pogačar’s Record-Shattering Attack
UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s pre-race strategy, revealed in a behind-the-scenes video, centered around setting an unprecedented pace on the Cipressa. Tim Wellens, Isaac Del Toro, and Jhonatan Narváez were tasked with leading Pogačar into position. While the plan initially faltered, Narváez stepped up, driving the pace on the climb and stretching the peloton to its limits.
Pogačar attacked with a devastating 630 watts (9.7 watts/kg) surge, gapping almost the entire field. Only Van der Poel, Ganna, and Romain Grégoire could follow. Pogačar continued to push relentlessly, completing the Cipressa in a record-breaking 8:59 with an estimated average power of ~487 watts (7.5 watts/kg). By the base of the Poggio, the trio had built a 40-second gap over the chase group, leaving the race to be decided among them.
The Poggio: A Battle of Titans
On the Poggio, Pogačar launched multiple attacks in an attempt to drop Van der Poel and Ganna. While Van der Poel matched each move, Ganna struggled initially but eventually regained contact. Pogačar’s efforts on the Poggio included sustained efforts of ~470 watts (7.3 watts/kg), with sections as high as 530 watts (8.2 watts/kg). Van der Poel, showcasing his versatility, even grabbed a bottle mid-ascent while sticking to Pogačar’s wheel.
Van der Poel turned the tables by launching his own attack in the final 500 meters of the Poggio. Pogačar managed to close the gap, but it was evident that the Slovenian was running out of options to secure victory.
The Final Sprint: Van der Poel’s Masterstroke
In the final kilometer, Ganna rejoined the leading duo, setting the stage for a three-way sprint. Van der Poel, known for his explosive acceleration, surprised everyone by launching his sprint from 300 meters out. This unexpected move caught Ganna and Pogačar off guard, allowing Van der Poel to open a gap and cross the line first. Pogačar, unable to close the distance, finished third, while Ganna took second.
Reflections and Questions
The 2024 Milan-San Remo raised several intriguing questions. Can Pogačar, primarily a climber and Grand Tour rider, ever conquer this race? How much faster can the Cipressa and Poggio be climbed? And is anyone capable of defeating Van der Poel when he’s at his peak? These questions will persist as the cycling world eagerly anticipates future clashes between these titans of the sport.
Looking Ahead
The rivalry between Pogačar and Van der Poel will continue at the E3 Saxo Classic, where fans can expect another thrilling duel. The power data from Milan-San Remo underscores the extraordinary physical and tactical demands of this race, reminding us why it remains one of the most cherished events in professional cycling.
Power analysis data courtesy of Strava.
