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Milan-San Remo, often dubbed "the easiest race to finish, the hardest race to win," is a race of unpredictability and drama. Known for its marathon distance and tactical complexity, it’s a race where anything can happen, especially in the final moments. As the peloton prepares for the 2024 edition, here are five bold and plausible scenarios that could unfold on the iconic roads of Italy’s longest one-day race.
1. Tom Pidcock’s Descending Attack on the Poggio
Tom Pidcock, the audacious British rider, has the skills to pull off a daring descent off the Poggio, the race’s final climb. Known for his fearless downhill abilities, Pidcock nearly escaped the bunch with a similar move in his 2021 debut. The Poggio’s tight, technical descent is tailor-made for his style, as demonstrated by Matej Mohorič’s dropper-post heist in 2022.
Pidcock’s chances of winning in a sprint against heavyweights like Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar are slim, making a solo descent his best shot at glory. His jaw-dropping descent off the Galibier in the 2022 Tour de France showcased his ability to handle high-speed, technical terrain. If Pidcock can replicate that form, he could turn the Poggio into a launchpad for a race-winning move.
2. Filippo Ganna and Jonathan Milan’s Via Roma Pursuit
Imagine Filippo Ganna and Jonathan Milan, two of Italy’s most powerful riders, teaming up for a two-up pursuit down the Via Roma. Ganna, a time trial specialist, and Milan, a track pursuit star, have the horsepower to dominate a late-race attack.
Ganna recently tested his legs with a similar move at Tirreno-Adriatico, proving he has the form to go long. Milan, meanwhile, has the speed to finish off a sprint if it comes to that. Together, they could create an all-Italian dream scenario, leaving the sprinters in their wake and giving the tifosi a moment to cherish.
3. Tadej Pogačar’s Cipressa Gamble
Could Tadej Pogačar be the first rider in 29 years to attack on the Cipressa and stay away? It’s a bold move, but Pogačar has the legs to make it happen. Known for his audacious attacks, Pogačar has tried and failed to make the Poggio his launching pad in previous editions.
Going long on the Cipressa would eliminate the threat of Van der Poel on the Poggio and the sprinters on the Via Roma. Pogačar’s ability to sustain long solo efforts, as seen in his 100km raid at the road worlds and his 80km solo win at Strade Bianche, makes this scenario less far-fetched than it seems. If anyone can channel the spirit of Marco Pantani’s 1999 Cipressa attack, it’s Pogačar.
4. Paul Magnier’s Bunch Sprint Surprise
If the race comes down to a bunch sprint, don’t count out Paul Magnier. The 20-year-old Quick-Step rider has been one of the most exciting new sprinters in the WorldTour, outpacing established names like Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay, and Wout van Aert.
Despite his inexperience in monuments and the grueling distance of Milan-San Remo, Magnier has the raw speed to stun the big names. His recent performances, including a near-win at the Omloop, suggest he’s ready to step into the spotlight. If the race stays together over the Poggio, Magnier could be the dark horse to watch.
5. Pogačar vs. Van der Poel: A Two-Up Showdown
The ultimate dream scenario: Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel in a head-to-head battle down the Via Roma. The two biggest stars in cycling, both former world champions, have a rivalry that defines the sport.
While the odds of such a scenario are slim, it’s a tantalizing prospect. Pogačar and Van der Poel are the only riders who can consistently challenge each other, and a straight shootout would be a fitting climax to the race. Whether it’s a sprint, a late attack, or a game of cat and mouse, this duel would be a spectacle for the ages.
Conclusion
Milan-San Remo’s beauty lies in its unpredictability. From daring descents to long-range attacks, the race offers endless possibilities. Whether it’s Pidcock’s downhill heroics, Ganna and Milan’s Italian dream, Pogačar’s Cipressa gamble, Magnier’s sprint surprise, or a Pogačar-Van der Poel showdown, the 2024 edition promises to deliver drama, excitement, and perhaps a moment of cycling history. As the peloton rolls out of Milan, one thing is certain: anything can happen in the mysterious sixth hour of this iconic race.
